Friday, January 28, 2011

Some FeSi Producers Raised Prices

Though ferrosilicon prices were mostly kept stable recently, some producers in Gansu have raised their prices slightly because of the limited usage of electricity power. With stocks being low, these producers increased their quotations to RMB7,000-7,200/mt. (1,60-1,080 $/t) And some suspended offering prices.

With the Spring Festival drawing, most producers expected that the market would keep calm on the whole.
With more and more plants to stop producing, Chinese silicon metal market is anticipated to be steady before holiday. For one thing, most buyers have suspended purchasing so that some plants choose this opportunity to examine equipments. For another thing, some plants are forced to close because of power shortage, and goods would be delivered with problems.

HRC Prices Increase in Latin America Jan 27 2011

January 27, 2011
Reportedly, the import prices of hot rolled coils (HRC) have surged to US$800/ton CNF in Latin America and the Middle East.
For Latin America, it’s known that its HRC prices are related to the US domestic market since the US steelmakers are main suppliers of HRC to Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America.
It’s known that the US current prices of HRC are at US$780~US$800/ton; moreover, some integrated steelmakers have planned to increase the prices further to the level of US$870/ton for March shipments.

Market slips as EU recyclers look to win market share

London 27 January 2011 17:46

MB’s Ferrous Scrap Index cfr Turkey fell slightly on Thursday, when EU recyclers undercut their US competitors.

The index fell $0.63 from Wednesday’s calculation of $499.16 on the same basis, when Turkish mills booked nine deep-sea cargoes comprising 230,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap.

One mill booked two cargoes amounting to 83,000 tonnes. One of these cargoes will contain 26,000 tonnes of A3, and 17,000 tonnes of shredded, booked from the Baltic at an average price of $502 per tonne cfr. 

The second cargo consisted of 18,000 tonnes of HMS 1&2 (80:20) mix at $495 per tonne cfr, another 18,000 tonnes of shredded at $500 per tonne cfr, and 4,000 tonnes of bonus material at $505 per tonne cfr. 

Other EU recyclers were also active. A Scandinavia-origin scrap sold at $492 per tonne cfr for HMS 1&2 (80:20) mix, and $497 per tonne cfr for shredded material. The cargo’s volume is 25,000 tonnes. 

A UK recycler also entered the market, selling 16,000 tonnes of HMS 1&2 (80:20), 13,000 tonnes of shredded and 6,000 tonnes of bonus at an average price of $498 per tonne cfr to a Turkish mill. 

Two further Turkish mills bought for February delivery, one buying 25,000 tonnes of HMS 1&2 (75:25) at $486 per tonne cfr, while another steelmaker buying at $500 per tonne cfr. 

“Steelmakers in Turkey are still in the market for scrap,” a Turkish mill said. 

Wednesday’s activity in Turkey has sent ripples across the global Fe scrap market, with traders in India now hiking offer prices to $495 per tonne cfr, up $15 on Indian mills last price position. 

Copyright © Metal Bulletin Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hsin Kuang Steel to Increase Steel Prices Jan 27 2011

January 27, 2011
Hsin Kuang Steel’s president said on January 25th that he expected the hot roll coil prices in global steel market to rise to US$800/ton by around the end of second quarter or the early third quarter.
Meanwhile, as the current average prices of hot roll coil are at about US$680/ton, it means the prices may rise by another 20% in the coming future.
Hsin Kuang Steel is the largest steel plate cutting center and distributor in Taiwan; its president analyzed that the floods in Australia will cause the coking coal prices increase to US$320/ton from US$200/ton.
Also, the dysfunctional transportation system and the delay supply of coking coal sources will push the steel prices to go up in the coming future.
News Source www.yieh.com

Iron & Steel Prices / 28. Jan 2011, Friday



Iron & Steel Prices
Friday January 28 2011
Iron Ore Daily 63.5%
CIS Billet. $/t fob Black Sea/Baltic
GCC rebar. $/t cfr main Gulf port
EU HDG coil. €/t delivered
EU HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap. $/t fob Rotterdam
CIS slab. $/t fob Black Sea/Baltic
EU HR coil. €/t delivered

Japan's steelmakers push hard for higher prices

Tokyo 28 January 2011 01:46

Japan's steelmakers are turning more aggressive in their efforts to push through price hikes to offset rising input costs.

Nippon Steel, the country's biggest steelmaker, will raise its February list price on most flat products by ¥5,000 per tonne for both distributors and downstream end-users such as pipe producers.

This increase followed a similar hike on January orders, and is accompanied by a rise of around 11-12% in H-beams and 5% on tubes for January-March deliveries. 

“We are facing higher raw material costs," a company official said. "But inventory levels in Japan have moderated a lot and the worst of the economic conditions seem to be ending. Because prices are now too cheap, we are using these factors to increase our prices.”

The company will seek further increases in coming months, a company official said.

Steelmakers face significant price hikes for Australian coal after recent floods in Queensland severely disrupted production. 

Australian fob coal prices may increase to $400 per tonne for three-month contracts starting April 1, from $225 per tonne this quarter, according to Merrill Lynch. It had originally forecast prices to be around $330 per tonne.

JFE Steel, Japan's no.2 producer, said downgraded its full-year net profit forecast on Friday, blaming rising costs of coking coal and strong demand for raw materials from China.

The nation's EAF-based producers are facing their own cost burdens in the form of relentless increases in ferrous scrap prices. 

In the past three months, the national average price for scrap has risen by almost 30% to more than ¥35,200 per tonne, while the country's largest EAF operator and effective benchmark price-setter, Tokyo Steel, is now paying as much as ¥38,5000 per tonne for its scrap requirements.

Faced with rising costs, Tokyo Steel has announced it is raising prices next month for the second straight month. The company said it will up flat product prices by ¥2,000 per tonne and long products by ¥3,000 per tonne, while warning that it will look to push through yet more increases after the Chinese New Year.

Kyoei Steel, meanwhile, is looking to boost its rebar prices by ¥7,000 per tonne, and Godo Steel is seeking a ¥10,000 per tonne rise in wire rod prices.

JFE Shape and Bars is also increasing its shapes prices by ¥5,000 per tonne amid indications of a recovery in the construction sector.

Figures released by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation show that sales of H-beams by the country's stockists fell by 1.1% in December from the previous month, volumes were up by 2% year-on-year. Sales of light bars, meanwhile, rose 1.9% from November and were up by 10.3% compared with the same period a year earlier.

Nippon Steel noted that stockpiles of H-beams among its distribution network dropped by 0.2% by the end of December on rising sales.

“We are definitely seeing signs of a gradual improvement in demand from the construction sector. With our scrap costs still rising, we have to strongly increase our selling prices," said an official at one mini-mill. 

Copyright © Metal Bulletin Ltd. All rights reserved.

Market gains as news of second deep sea cargo breaks

London 26 January 2011 15:10

MB’s Ferrous Scrap Index cfr Turkey rose again on Wednesday, calculating at $499.16 on an HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix) basis on news of another deep sea cargo booking. 

Late on Tuesday a Turkish mill booked an EU-origin cargo comprising 10,000 tonnes of shredded material with maximum 0.25% Cu content at $505 per tonne cfr and 10,000 tonnes of special shredded material with maximum 0.12% Cu content at $515. 

An offer first quoted on Tuesday for 32,000 tonnes of EU-origin HMS 1&2 (70:30 mix) at $485 per tonne cfr still hasn’t attracted buyers, market participants said. 

“We haven’t even received a counter offer,” the recycler said. 

Copyright © Metal Bulletin Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ferrous scrap prices expected to ease in February


27. JAN 2011 by AMM.

Some ferrous scrap brokers are talking the market down about $20 to $25 per ton for February, but others are urging their mill customers to go sideways in their pricing next month.
The unusually harsh winter weather—near-weekly snowstorms in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic states and the Midwest—have aroused concerns among mill buyers and their brokers, one Chicago-based trader said.
"Most mills are still owed scrap from this month—some as much as 40 percent of the tonnage they bought. If they cancel their existing orders in anticipation of lower prices in February, they may not get any scrap for several weeks," he said.
Many mills typically cancel unfilled orders at the end of the month if they expect prices to be lower, believing they will be able to buy the same scrap at lower prices. With scrap still owed to some mils and the flow into scrapyards pretty slow, the Chicago trader said, the mills that don't cancel their January orders are likely get their old orders for scrap filled first.
A Detroit-area broker described the market as "very quiet" and said he was unsure what direction prices would take this month. "We hear some of the major brokers are talking it down about $15 or $20 a ton, and I'm sure some of the mills would like to see the price go down after the $50 or $60 (-per-ton) increase they saw this month," he said.
Still, not all of the scrap ordered by some mills has been shipped on time, he said, and the flow into scrapyards is slow because of the weather.
While some foresee a sideways market in February, more believe prices will drop by at least $20 to $25 per ton, although many mills are reporting that their order books are stronger and they will be melting more scrap.
One key Midwest mill has already begun to put out feelers for scrap at prices that are down between $20 and $30 per ton, several industry sources said, although none was able to confirm any sales at those levels.
"The mills bought a lot of scrap last month, so I don't think they have any inventory problems," a northern Ohio trader said. "I don't see it falling out of bed in February, but I think prices will be off by a few bucks a ton."
Much of the material he bought for mills this month has been shipped or is on schedule to be shipped. The only problem, he said, is getting some mills to unload rail cars faster and return them to scrapyards for reloading. Another problem, he said, may be the logjam of cars at East Coast export yards, which were pushing for scrap late last month in part to fill the orders they had already taken from steelmakers in Turkey and elsewhere.
There have been few new orders for U.S. export yards in recent weeks, though. Instead, one East Coast exporter said, Turkish mills have been booking more business with western European suppliers.
Even with domestic steel mills enjoying brisk demand and fat order books, several scrap processors said they are bracing for a sideways to downward move in February's first round of buying.
In the Midwest, players are not as bullish as in recent months, saying that winter weather choking off supply and limited availability of rail cars may be the primary drivers that are keeping prices from retreating more than a few dollars.
A Midwest mill buyer said he expects to run strong in February, but indications are he will not be paying higher prices for scrap. "My sense of the market today is a soft sideways. There is a better chance of weakening rather than gaining strength. Some think that obsolete-type grades may be off about $5 a gross ton," he said.
"Prices will be down, although I think it will just be a dip," a second Midwest source said, noting that scrap collection efforts have been limited by record snowfalls.
But some players believe the pricing pause may be temporary and short-lived. "We are not anticipating any major price fluctuations either way, even though the mills are hoping to take them down," another Midwest source said. Also, "rail cars are in tight supply and yards are only getting 60 to 65 percent service rates. Everyone will likely owe significant tons of scrap, which should keep pricing steady to up slightly. After we blow through the tons that several dealers withheld in December and sold in the January market, there won't be much volume behind it."
On the East Coast, one scrap dealer is confused by the mixed messages he is receiving. The only flow underway is from salvage yards and scrapyards that held inventory in the last two months of 2010. "That's the only reason for a pick-up in flow, and it is short-lived in my opinion," he said.
Sources in all regions said the mills they supply have strong order books and that order entries continue at a steady pace. As a result they expect to ship similar tonnages in February as in January.
In the Southwest, players are expecting prices to be flat to down. "We are as busy as last month, but I do see the market as sideways," one source in the region said. Scrap flows in the area have been healthy, which prompted one Houston shredder to lower its buying price for feedstock by $25 a ton.
Mills are trying to talk the market down and may be able to haggle down a few dollars but will meet resistance if they get too greedy, a second Southwest scrap industry source said.

Nucor Increases Steel Flat Prices Jan 27 2011

January 27, 2011
Nucor announced to increase the base prices of steel flat products further by US$44/ton on this Tuesday, including cold rolled, hot rolled and galvanized steel products.
The company indicated that they decided to rise the steel prices due to strong demand and soaring costs on raw material.
Also, this is the seventh time that Nucor hikes the steel prices since Thanksgiving in last year, with total increase of US$309/ton.

Singapore, India eye China in iron ore futures race

In a tight race to launch the world's first iron ore futures contract, India and Singapore could struggle to lure top consumer China because of Beijing's rigid overseas investment rules and India's recent policy moves. 

The prize for the exchange that can establish the dominant pricing benchmark is potentially huge � becoming the hedging tool for a seaborne iron ore market worth around $100 billion (US) in 2010. 

Exchanges in both Singapore and India want to cash in on the iron ore market, second in size only to crude oil, at a time when spot prices of the steelmaking ingredient are nearing record levels of around $200 a tonne. 

But it may be tough for the bourses to attract Chinese steelmakers, the biggest buyers of iron ore, given the strict regulations imposed on Chinese firms on overseas derivatives instruments. 

"The overseas futures market regulations as far as China is concerned are quite restrictive as it recognises the domestic markets more," said Michael Gaylard, strategy director at Freight Investor Services. 

"And with iron ore being hugely China dependent you would expect that for an exchange to work, it would have to be able to grab that market." 

The Singapore Mercantile Exchange said on Wednesday it was planning to launch its iron ore futures contract in the second quarter, a day after the Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) said it was looking at launching its own iron ore futures within a month. 

The Singapore Exchange, which clears the bulk of iron ore forward swaps globally, had seen its monthly volumes dwindle since hitting a record 2.2 million tonnes last April, a year after it was launched. 

Chinese mills are only starting to warm to the idea of iron ore swaps as a hedging tool and analysts say selling another hedging instrument to them could be difficult. 

"Chinese steel mills are unlikely to trade in iron ore futures in the near term," said Jiang Zhiwei, an analyst with BOC International Futures. 

"Just like swaps, it will take time for the futures market to mature and the Chinese are not experienced on iron ore derivatives." 

A more transparent pricing mechanism can only be effective if it has enough liquidity, which may be a tall task for a fledgling futures market that would be vying for business along with exchanges already offering swaps, analysts said. 

Singapore and rival bourses in the United States and Europe are competing for business in the forward iron ore swaps market, hoping to attract steelmakers into hedging iron ore costs after the industry switched from a decades-old annual pricing system to a scheme where each quarter's prices are based on the average spot market price in the previous quarter. 

POLITICALLY SENSITIVE 

India's recent policy moves toward iron ore exports may also work against it as potential futures market players could see them as non-investor friendly. 

India is the world's No. 3 iron ore exporter but shipments have fallen for a sixth straight month in December because of a ban on exports from its southern Karnataka state. 

Top iron ore producing state Orissa is also looking at a similar ban and along with higher freight cost and talk that iron ore export duties may be raised, point to India trying to constrict exports to meet growing demand at home. 

"It's a very politically sensitive area and if you're basing a futures market there, that in essence reflects an underlying spot market that is so open for change all the time, it's going to be very difficult for them to get traction in that market," said FIS' Gaylard. 

Another concern is the aspect of physical delivery which could be capital-intensive and quite complicated for iron ore given its varying grades. Copper, by comparison, has a uniform grade and at more than $9,000 a tonne is much more cost effective to store than iron ore, currently priced at less than $200 a tonne. 

"A futures contract with physical delivery would be more useful for sellers and buyers but iron ore is very unlike copper," said Henry Liu, regional head of commodity research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong. 

"You have to have a huge storage facility and you need to monitor closely the quality and delivery conditions for the different grades. 

"I think the learning curve will be high for everyone in the beginning," added Liu. 

INDIA VS SINGAPORE 

Policy swings in India are also worrisome, traders said. 

"There are a number of risks from the Indian government, which has banned futures trading in some markets before on the basis of national interest," said an iron ore trading source from Australia. 

India had banned trade in sugar futures in May 2009 for six months when prices were rising. The government again extended the ban until the end of September last year. 

"The limited details about these contracts is also a worry to me. All things taken together, they may struggle to find enough liquidity for this to develop into benchmark contracts that the rest of the world pays attention to," said the trading source. 

SMX, controlled by India's Financial Technologies, said it was looking at a cash-settled iron ore futures contract based on the iron ore index by data provider Metal Bulletin. 

ICEX has yet to determine whether its contract will be cash settled or delivery based. 

Singapore's iron ore futures market, which will be open to foreign players, may have an edge over India's. 

India currently bars foreign funds from its commodity exchanges, limiting its influence as a price setter. But the commodity markets regulator expects institutional players to use new products including options and futures, which were cleared by the cabinet in September. 

"The good thing about Singapore is it's not directly involved in iron ore so there's no cause or means by which it's going to be seen to be moving the market in any particular direction," said FIS' Gaylard.

China's coal imports up 31% in 2010

China imported 164.83 million tons of coal in 2010, up 30.99 percent on the previous year and coal exports declined 15.03 percent for the same period to 19.03 million tons, the Beijing News reported Thursday, citing data from the nation's top economic planner.

The National Development and Reform Commission said Indonesia was the largest coal exporter to China, followed by Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia and Russia. The five accounted for 84 percent of the nation's coal imports.

Last year's coal net imports stood at 145.8 million tons, up 42.37 million tons or 29 percent from the previous year, the report said.

Citibank issued a report earlier, predicting China's net coal imports will surge to 63 percent this year to over 200 million tons, due to the nation's strong demand and high dependence on coal as energy.

Coal industry insiders also believe China will see more coal imports this year, the report said.

Vale iron ore, coal shipments delayed by rains

Heavy rains over recent weeks have interrupted Brazilian miner Vale's shipments of 600,000 tonnes of iron ore from Brazil and 500,000 tonnes of coal from Australia, a company director said on Thursday. Roberto Castello Branco, director of investor relations, said the shipments were expected to be made up over the next couple months.
He said the iron ore delays were relatively small compared to the company's expected production in 2011 of 311 million tonnes. The coal delays will have a greater effect on operations, given that Vale expects to produce around 5 million tonnes of coal in 2011 in Australia. Heavy rains in Brazil this month caused floods that killed hundreds of people and slowed port operations in some places. Branco said the company last year prepared contingency plans to ensure that rains had only a limited effect on shipments.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Energy and Natural Resources Market Diary

Strengths
  • China's passenger car sales jumped 63 percent in March from a year earlier as manufacturers scrambled to meet strong demand driven by tax cuts and government subsidies. Passenger car sales rose to 1.26 million vehicles in March, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
  • Nickel, used to make stainless steel, advanced to the highest level in 23 months on speculation the market will swing into deficit for the first time in four years as a recovering economy boosts demand.
  • North American aluminum orders (less can stock which tend to be extremely volatile) increased 12.5 percent sequentially and 25.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.
  • Steel mills in Germany produced 3.96 million metric tons of crude steel in the month of March, according to the German Steel Federation. This is the highest level of production since September 2008 and the federation anticipates that production will remain at a high level during the 2Q10.
  •  

Weaknesses
  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.5 percent this week to $82.84 per barrel as the dollar gained on de-risking in the markets.

Opportunities
  • Posco, Asia’s third-biggest steelmaker, plans to invest about $5 billion on overseas mines, joining rival mills scouring the globe for supplies in the face of higher raw-material costs. The South Korean steelmaker says it wants to boost its self-sufficiency rate for raw materials to 70 percent from about 18 percent.
  • Nucor has indicated that it will increase base prices on hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized products by $40 per short ton and increase plate prices by $60 per short ton.
Threats
  • Reuters reported that U.S. officials plan to study oil and natural gas royalty collection systems used in other countries to determine whether the government can boost revenue from energy leases.
  • China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, said it is investigating the possibility that BHP Billiton Ltd., Vale SA and Rio Tinto Group may be monopolizing supplies.

Energy and Natural Resources Market Cheat Sheet (January 10, 2011)

Strengths
  • Steel scrap prices have started 2011 in the same manner they exited 2010, on a rapid upward trajectory. The Metal Bulletin Ferrous Scrap Index CFR Turkey climbed 3.4 percent to nearly $497 per ton on Thursday amid a slew of new deals.
  • The Platts premium hard coking coal assessment surged $14 per ton on Wednesday to $270 per ton Australian free-on-board (FOB) value as buyers scrambled for tonnages to replace cancelled cargos. The price has now risen 14 percent over the past month following the disruption of coal mining in Queensland, Australia because of heavy rains and flooding.
  • Nucor announced its second price increase ($60 per short ton) on carbon flat rolled products this week, bringing its price for hot rolled coil (HRC) to $800 per short ton. AK Steel also announced a price hike of $50 per short ton this week.
  • Mid-term uranium prices rose from $62 to $64 per pound of yellowcake (U308) over the past week. Long-term uranium indicator prices rose from $65 to $67 per pound, according to Tradetech.
Weaknesses
  • U.S. coal producer Peabody Energy cut its 2010 profit forecast, citing the rains and flooding in Australia.
  • Copper prices fell 2 percent from record high levels this week on profit taking and concern of further monetary tightening in China and other emerging markets.
Opportunities
  • Anglo American, one of Australia's top met coal miners, said that it could take weeks to pump water out of its mines caused by massive flooding in the Queensland state.
  • China aims to expand its oil refining capacity by 20 percent by adding roughly 2 million barrels per day to boost its total capacity by 2015, the National Energy Administration said.
  • China will intensify the search for domestic resources such as oil, coal and metals in the next five years to meet rising demand, the Ministry of Land and Resources said on Friday. China's Demand for resources will rise because of its industrialization and urbanization during the country’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), the minister said in a report posted on the ministry website.
  • In order to catch up with the growing demand in domestic and international markets, Indonesian coal miners expect to produce 340 million tons of coal in 2011, an increase of 23 percent from 275 million tons last year. Supriatna Suhala, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association, said almost all coal miners in the country had expressed their commitments to expanding their production in 2011. “As the global economy recovers, we expect to see growing demand for coal both at domestic and international markets in 2011,” he said. Of the planned 340 million tons of coal produced in 2011, the association estimates 20 percent of them around 70 million tons will be allocated to fulfill domestic market demand, while the remaining 80 percent will be exported.
Threats
  • An analyst report highlighted that exports of Mexican heavy oil will fall to the lowest level in 15 years in 2011 once a local refinery is upgraded. This could hit the profitability of U.S. refiners emerging from the bruising 2008-09 market downturn. The start up of a major refinery project will cut Mexico’s Maya heavy crude oil exports by some 110,000 barrels per day this year, according to government data.
  • Australia's flood-stricken coal industry may be disrupted for months after key rail and road links were washed away. Authorities said on Friday that some infrastructure could take years to repair. The floods have swamped mines in the state of Queensland, paralyzing operations that produce 35 percent of Australia's estimated 259 million tons of exportable coal. Australia accounts for two-thirds of global exports of coking-coal, which is needed to make steel.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Sponge iron prices rise 20% in a month

Dilip Kumar Jha & Shubhashish / Mumbai January 26, 2011, 0:01 IST

The prices of sponge iron rose by nearly 20 per cent in the past month in line with similar rises in the prices of other steel making raw material, including iron ore and scrap.

On Friday, sponge iron prices in Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India’s largest producing hub, is quoted at Rs 21,000 a tonne, from Rs 16,500 a tonne about a month earlier. The commodity slipped marginally from its peak at Rs 22,000 a tonne yesterday. Producers and traders attribute this price rise to an all-round appreciation in finished steel products and raw materials.
Post-monsoon construction activity began with a lag of a month due to an extended rainy season. So, projects in this sector are behind schedule, creating a rush for completion. As a result, demand for construction-grade steel has suddenly surged. Vipul Agarwal, director (finance), Prakash Industries, said, “Sponge iron prices have spiked by over 20 per cent in the past month or so and looks likely to continue to move upwards.”

The cost of production of sponge iron for Prakash Industries is around Rs 12,000 a tonne due to captive iron ore mines.
The company sells it at a profit margin of a massive 75 per cent, at Rs 21,000 a tonne. Agarwal said, “We have our own coal mines. That is why our cost of production is lower than other sponge iron makers.”

On the other hand, a number of small sponge iron producers in Chhattisgarh have shut shop due to inability to procure raw materials like steel scrap and iron ore at such a high price. Imported steel scrap is quoted today at Mumbai port at $450-480 a tonne, a significant rise from $360-400 a tonne about a month earlier.

Similarly, the benchmark iron ore (with 63.5 per cent of Fe content) perked to $190 a tonne from $155-160 a tonne a month before.

“Though the flood in Australia did not impact supply of iron ore or coking coal, it created a sentimental boost to the entire steel sector,” said Vimal Kumar Somani, director of Topworth Group, a Mumbai-based sponge iron manufacturer which runs its plant in Raipur.

Prices of finished steel have also surged in line with hot-rolled coil, up to $760 a tonne today from $580 a tonne a month before. Shredded scrap is currently quoted at $500 per tonne, a significant rise from $440-450 a tonne, while heavy melting scrap (HMS) is sold at $450-480 a tonne today, as compared to $360-400 a tonne a month earlier.
Internal demand for steel is also bullish, especially from the automobile, construction and consumer durables’ sector, said Somani. Mega projects like power and national highways require a lot of steel. Therefore, prices of steel and its raw materials are likely to remain firm for at least the next two months, he added.

Iron Ore-Key indexes stay high but buying wanes

* Import market wanes as mills stop buying
* Shanghai rebar slipped half a percent
* Market eyeing India export policies
(Adds trader's quote, details)
SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Offers to sell iron ore to China remained unchanged on Wednesday as steel mills stopped buying in the final week before the Lunar New Year holiday, although key indexes continued to hover near record highs on Tuesday.
China's iron ore market has gradually ground to a halt this week as the Feb. 2-8 Lunar New Year holiday approaches, and offers of Indian ore with 63.5 percent iron content selling to China stood little changed at about $190 per tonne.
"Our steel mill customers have already stopped buying raw materials this week; there is no market at all right now," said an iron ore trader in Shanghai.
Year-end restocking by Chinese steel mills since early January has boosted prices of imported iron ore to nearly $200 per tonne including freight, a level last seen in February 2008.
"There is not much time left to open letters of credit if you buy forward bookings now, and steel mills have stocked up already," said another Shanghai-based trader.
However, a few larger steel mills continue to buy the raw material from ports. Prices are cheaper than forward bookings and buyers are also concerned that costs will rise further after the holiday.
The Platts 62 percent iron ore index IODBZ00-PLT remained steady at $186 per tonne on Tuesday, still close to last Thursday's record of $186.50.
The Steel Index 62 percent benchmark .IO62-CNI=SI rebounded 40 cents to $185.4 per tonne, holding close to last Friday's record of $185.70.
The Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index .IO62-CNO=MB bucked the trend again by falling about $1 to $183.48 per tonne on Tuesday after gaining for 12 consecutive sessions.
SUPPLY CHAOS
India's high court is expected to lift the ban on exports from the southern Karnataka state in February, which might ease supply shortages and trigger a fall in prices.
"Supply will increase if the ban is removed and there may be a psychological impact too. Prices are so high now and we are all waiting for it to peak and fall," the second trader said.
However, India Railways raised train freight costs for iron ore for exports by 50 percent from Thursday to take advantage of solid global prices, and that might push prices even closer towards $200 a tonne. [ID:nSGE70O07P]
Orissa state, India's top iron ore producer, is also looking at a ban on exports, which adds more uncertainties to the physical market.
The most active rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SRBK1 slipped around half a percent in the morning trade to close at 4,967 yuan ($754.6) per tonne, after rising to a record for the sixth time in eight sessions on Tuesday.
Port Hedland, Australia's biggest iron ore export terminal, suspended loading ships on Wednesday with the approach of Cyclone Bianca, which is forecast to worsen on Thursday.[ID:nL3E7CQ03U] ($1=6.582 Yuan) (Reporting by Ruby Lian and David Stanway; Editing by Chris Lewis and Ken Wills)

Steel Futures in Shanghai Gain to Record as Iron-Ore Costs Rise

Steel futures in Shanghai jumped to a record after iron-ore prices surged to a nine-month high, with buyers in China stockpiling the raw material in anticipation of a shortfall in supplies.
Reinforcement bars, or rebars, for October delivery gained for a third day, rising as much as 2.6 percent, to 5,093 yuan ($773) a metric ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the highest ever. The contract was at 5,077 yuan at the 11:30 a.m. break, up 5.5 percent this month. The May-delivery wire-rod contract rose 2.7 percent to 4,909 yuan a ton.
China is ramping up steel output as demand climbs in the world’s second-largest economy for houses, offices, autos and appliances. Costlier iron-ore and steel prices may contribute to faster inflation, which gained 4.6 percent in December after a 5.1 percent jump the month before.
“Raw-material prices continue to support steel prices,” China International Futures (Shanghai) Co. analyst Huang Huiwen said from Shanghai today. “Iron-ore supplies may further tighten as Chinese steel demand and production picks up.”
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s biggest publicly traded steelmaker, said on Jan. 11 it was raising prices for a second month as local demand increased. Anshan Iron & Steel Group raised product prices for February delivery, Xinhua News Agency reported Jan. 18.
The price of 62 percent-iron ore arriving at Tianjin rose to $185.70 a ton on Jan. 21, the highest level since April 21, according to the Steel Index, a data provider. Rebar inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 17,259 tons last week, the lowest since August 2009.
Pilbara Mines
BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Fortescue Metal Group mine iron ore in the Australia’s Pilbara region, where a tropical low is headed and expected to increase to cyclone strength, the Bureau of Meteorology said yesterday. Pilbara is the country’s biggest iron-ore producing region.
Orissa, India’s largest iron-ore producing state, is considering banning exports to thwart illegal mining and increase local supplies. A decision is expected “soon,” state Mines Minister Raghunath Mohanty said on Jan. 21. The south Indian state of Karnataka barred exports last July.
China boosted steel output by 9.3 percent to a record in 2010, driven by demand from automakers and railway builders. Crude-steel production rose to 627 million tons last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Jan. 20. China’s steel output may increase to 661 million tons this year, according to UBS AG.
“The strength in raw-material prices should ensure the continued upward momentum of steel prices,” said Huang. “The biggest risk to the market lies in China’s moves to rein in liquidity and property speculation.”

Sesa Goa: Sharp iron ore price rise augurs well for company

Sesa Goa, a dominant player in the iron ore and allied commodities segment, benefited from a sharp rise in iron ore prices during the quarter to December 2010. 

Global iron ore traded at an average price of $160 per tonne in the third quarter, a nearly three-fifth jump compared with a year ago, and that helped Sesa Goa offset the fall in the commodity's sales volume. Iron ore is a key input for the steel industry. The company's consolidated revenue rose 20% year-on-year to 2,250 crore in the quarter, but that could not prevent a 700 basis points fall in its operating profit margin to 55%. Also, the 20.6% year-on-year fall in iron ore volumes sold resulted in the slowest growth in quarterly net sales during the current financial year.


Sesa Goa also had to grapple with a higher cost structure, like logistics at its mines in Goa, and that led to a fall in its operating margins. The company's iron ore output in the quarter was also curtailed due to unprecedented monsoons in Goa last year. However, higher realisations helped net profit rise 29% year-on-year during the third quarter to 1,065.3 crore. The results were declared after the close of Monday trade, and on Tuesday, the stock ended 1.3% lower at 326. Global iron ore prices have gone up further over the last few weeks and reports indicate spot prices at close to $ 180 per tonne levels. The current price is not too far from the all-time high of $ 200 per tonne seen in early 2008, say analysts. 

The rise in iron ore prices comes when demand from the steel industry in emerging markets has been strong and flooding is likely to disrupt supplies from Australia in the short term. Media reports indicate that global suppliers of iron ore are shifting to more short-term, monthly contracts compared with the traditional quarterly contracts, to get better realisations. This positive outlook for iron ore prices should help drive realisations and net profit at Sesa Goa over the next few quarters. 

India's FMC allows futures trade in iron ore

India's commodity markets regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has allowed futures trade in iron ore, its chairman told Reuters on Tuesday, opening up an opportunity for exporters to hedge price risk.
"I have approved it and allowed four contracts," said Chairman BC Khatua. 
Multi Commodity Exchange, the country's largest by turnover, and Indian Commodity Exchange are the bourses that had proposed to start iron ore futures. 
At present, iron ore trade is enabled through swap deals, which is a cash-settled derivative, between a seller and a buyer at a fixed price for a set amount of time that provides price certainty for both the buyer and seller. 
Iron ore contracts in India, the world's third-largest producer of the ore, will help small exporters to hedge risk against fluctuating prices, which have been marching towards USD 200 a tonne, a record last seen in February 2008. 
The southern state of Karnataka had in July banned export the much-needed raw material for steel making, citing higher domestic demand. 
Another top iron ore producing state, Orissa, is also seeking a ban on exports of the steel making commodity, and is likely to send a proposal to the federal government in a month. 
In December, India's annual iron ore exports fell for the sixth straight month as the exports ban continued to bite, but the pace of the fall slowed versus the previous month due to demand from China. 
Iron ore exports during the April-December fell 17.02% from a year earlier to 64.4 million tonnes, data from the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) showed.

India produces nearly 225 million tonnes iron ore ayear and consumes 55 per cent of it, the rest being exported,mainly to China.

Coking coal and Iron ore prices in 2011 - Ben Westmore

National Australia Bank commodities economist, Ben Westmore, takes us through the factors currently impacting on coking coal and iron ore prices.

GEOFF CANDY:  Welcome to Mineweb.com's Metals Weekly podcast.  Joining me on the line is Ben Westmore - he's a commodity economist at National Australia Bank.  Ben there has been quite a lot of action going on over the last couple of weeks, in both the coking coal particularly or the coal markets and the iron ore markets as well, not the least of which the unfolding tragedy in Australia around the flooding, particularly in Queensland.  If we look at the coking coal market first, there has been a lot of concern about what is going to be happening within the coal markets, given that a lot of production in Australia has been side-lined for a little bit of time - what's going on at this stage?
BEN WESTMORE:  Our estimates at the moment as to the likely fall in coal exports from Australia put at around 15 million tonnes with the majority of that though off in production and exports being in the coking coal market so that loss being about two million tonnes and when you look at that on a worldwide internationally traded seaborne basis it equates about 45 of seaborne metallurgical coal traded in any one year.  So it's a very material number in terms of the loss and it's coming at a time when we're also seeing some supply constraints in Russia with some frozen cargos and rail problems and at a time when you're seeing very strong cyclical demand from Asian steel mills who want this cocking coal as an input for production.
GEOFF CANDY:  Over the course of 2010 we saw prices of coking coal up from around about $180/tonne to $250 - there are some speculators saying we could see it as high as $500/tonne - more kind of reasonable estimates if you will, around $220/tonne - where are you envisioning the price going over the course of 2011?
BEN WESTMORE:  At the moment we know that the first quarter in terms of quarter renegotiated contract price has been set at around $225/tonne for coking coal - the second quarter in 2011 is the one where we are likely to see a bit of a spike as a result of the Queensland floods.  At the moment our forecasts are expecting prices to jump to around $300/tonne - so quite a big increase.  After that we do have some moderation in the price with those sort of levels factored in, but with continued outages in Australia and bottlenecks at ports and in terms of coal transport, we think that the supplier response is going to be a gradual rather than swift and so if you think about the profile of the likely path for coking coal prices they  are likely to decline very gradually over the subsequent 12 months.
GEOFF CANDY:  How is this likely to affect the market - do we get to a point where people are actually saying that prices are too high at this level - or is that a concern?
BEN WESTMORE:  We haven't seen it so far at this stage and when you look at those spot markets that are related to steel - so iron ore is probably the best spot market to get a good read and a good spot market in terms of liquidity to follow - it does appear that demand continues to be growing for these commodities.  But there's a point presumably where the cost curve for producers just rises too much and causes some demand destruction.  And while we're not saying it's a risk and it's a risk that could have significant implications for coking coal demand as well as for iron ore demand being the main two inputs into steel production.
GEOFF CANDY:  Talking about iron ore demand and clearly we've seen rising production from the likes of BHP Billiton.  We've seen spot prices on the iron ore market rising quite considerably as well.  What are the factors driving that?
BEN WESTMORE:  Yes - on the demand side it's a similar influence of the cyclical restocking that's going on and on the supply side I actually think that the Queensland floods and the increased concentration on the weather event that's going on at the moment is having some marginal impact on the iron ore price even though iron ore production is generally not in the west of Australia rather than eastern seaboard where the floods are.  So we do know that this sort of weather event increases the likelihood of cyclone activity and looking at it from an Australia-centric perspective, there has been expectations of more cyclones that could cause outages in the Pillborough and those sort of areas where BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and the big Australian iron ore miners produce, so since the end of November iron ore prices have risen by around 10% and at this stage notwithstanding the possibility of some demand destruction due to what's happing with coking coal prices, we wouldn't expect the prices to abate from these levels any time soon.
GEOFF CANDY:  And in terms of the price negotiation structure - the way in which iron ore prices are negotiated - have we seen all the effects of those changes filtering through now or are we likely to still see disruptions further ahead.
BEN WESTMORE:  For the time being I think we've seen most of them filter through and the majority of iron ore contracts any way do follow the spot prices in iron ore with some lag quite closely - going forward one to watch in the iron ore market is a continued evolution of this pricing system to become even more closely integrated with the spot price - that could come further down the track in the move from quality contract prices to a smaller time horizon of contract prices and that is something that, definitely from the miners perspective anyway, that they are quite keen to pursue.
GEOFF CANDY:  Just to close off, where do you see iron ore prices going over the course of 2011 and indeed coal prices as well?
BEN WESTMORE:  For both coal and iron ore, we have a broadly similar profile because the demand outlook is similar for both commodities - especially for coking coal.  With iron ore we do see some supplier response - as you alluded to BHP Billiton and some of the other big miners are reporting increased production, and in the second half of 2011 as a result, we'll probably see some moderation in iron ore prices, but the demand influence is in place - we'll continue to see prices stay at high levels.  In terms of coking coal prices, as I said, we see a peak at around $300/tonne in the second quarter and then a very gradual moderation over the subsequent 12 months.  In terms of thermal coal prices - we at the moment have a jump in thermal coal prices - annual contract price from $95/tonne to around $130/tonne in the 2011 ... fiscal year.  That's our broad views on where the bulks are going and we do think that in general prices will continue to maintain these high levels but there will be some moderation over the next 12 - 18 months.

Scrap metal recyclers see signs of rebound

Published: January 25th, 2011

Economic indicators give a quick glimpse of how the economy is doing. They include traditional measures such as consumer confidence indexes, sales tax revenue and home prices. An offbeat economic bellwether is the dry cleaning industry, with higher unemployment typically leading to fewer pressed shirts and pants for work.

But metal recyclers also provide a quick snapshot of the economy, since more metal ends up in yards when consumers buy new appliances and cars. At least for the past few years, metal recyclers have been seeing a shrinking stream of metals as the recession hurts their business. But that may finally be turning around according to scrap metal recyclers such as Gershow Recycling in Medford. “A scrap metal recycling plant is a great place to go to see how the economy is performing,” said Gershow President Kevin Gershowitz, who’s seeing signs of improving business and an improving economic climate.

A number of statistics related to metal point to signs of an improving economy for metal recyclers and business in general. New orders for manufactured goods in November rose $3.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $423.8 billion, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau. “When companies and individuals buy more durable goods, then the older products come to our scrap yards,” Gershowitz said. “The increase in durable goods purchases shows that the economy is improving.”

Other factors are sending more metal to scrap yards.


The National Automobile Dealers Association estimated 11.5 million new cars were sold in 2010, up from 10.4 million the prior year. While that’s lower than the 13.2 million in 2008, it’s still a hefty year-over-year jump. “When a new car is purchased, an older vehicle is taken off the road,” Gershowitz said. “As more people buy new cars, we’ll see more old cars coming in to be recycled.” Gershowitz also believes the extension of tax breaks should boost consumer demand, good news for retailers selling new goods and firms like his, which recycle older items. “This means more scrap metal should be brought into the yards,” Gershowitz said. “As people make more durable goods purchases or home improvements, we’ll be one of the first industries to feel the impact as old appliances are brought in to be recycled.” But problems in the housing and construction industry continue to impact recyclers like Gershow, which are seeing less scrap from renovations and new buildings.

“We feel that business for many contractors remains slow and some of them have left the industry,” Gershowitz said. “We see this in our metal shops, with far fewer home improvements being done, compared to pre-recession levels. Most of the activity continues to be necessary repairs, rather than major home improvements.”

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, 6.8 percent below the 681,000 estimate a year ago, according to the Census.
The Census estimates that construction spending in November was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $810.2 billion, 6 percent below the November 2009 estimate of $861.5 billion.

Base Metal Prices Mumbai India Jan 25 2011

January 20, 2011
Reuters has published base metal and scrap metals prices in rupees per tonne at the Bombay Metal Exchange:
METALS – Copper wire bars (HCL*), Aluminum ingots, Zinc slab, Lead ingot, Tin, Nickel , Cathode
SCRAP – Copper cable scrap, Copper heavy scrap, Copper armeture, Copper utensil scrap, Copper sheet cutting, Brass utensil scrap, Brass sheet cuttings, Aluminum utensil scrap
Pricing can be found at the Reuters article MUMBAI INDIA SCRAP METAL PRICES

Japanese No2 HMS Scrap up by JPY 500 a tonne

January 25 2011 – Kanto region of Japan reports that No2 HMS scrap metal price benchmark up by JPY 500 a tonne

TEX reported that Japan's local ferrous scrap market further advanced by JPY 500 to JPY 36,500 to JPY 37,000 per tonne delivered at steelworks as of January 18th 2011 for the benchmark of No2 HMS prices in the Kanto area, where what electric steelmakers pay for local ferrous scrap vary from company to company.

In the Kanto area, Sanko Steel Co has raised its purchase prices of local ferrous scrap by JPY 2,000 per tonne this week to JPY 37,000 per tonne delivered for No2 HMS at its Hiratsuka works. Except Sanko Steel, several other electric steelmakers executed a purchase price increase of JPY 500 to JPY 1,000 per tonne for local ferrous scrap by January 18th 2011. Among those steelmakers are Asahi Industries Co, Oji Steel Co, JFE Bars & Shapes Corp, Jonan Steel Corporation, Daiwa Steel Corporation, Chiyoda Steel Co and Tokyo Tekko Co.

In contrast, some electric steelmakers keep their purchase prices unchanged of local ferrous scrap. Among them are Itoh Iron & Steel Co, Kanto Steel Limited and Mukoyama Steel Works Co.

Various electric steelmakers operating in the northern Kanto area or in the Tokyo Bay area enjoy arrivals of local ferrous scrap to meet consumption levels at their works, point out many ferrous scrap distributors.

In the Tokyo Bay area, meanwhile, ex yard prices of local ferrous scrap went up by JPY 1,000 per tonne by January 17th 2011. As of January 18th 2011, benchmarks of ex yard prices were JPY 36,500 to JPY 37,000 per tonne for No2 HMS and JPY 39,500 to JPY 40,000 per tonne both for P&S steel scrap and Shindachi (high grade material). There were sporadic cases of a price level at JPY 37,000 per tonne ex yard for cargoes to meet assigned ship loadings.

(Sourced from TEX Report Limited)

Steel Prices Expected to Increase in Global Market Jan 25 2011

January 25, 2011
According to the prediction of Financial Times, the global steel production would raise by 6.2% to reach 1.5 billion tons in 2011, pushed by the recovering global economy.
Among them, China’s increase scope would be at 5.2% and the other countries would have raised the steel production by 7%.
At the same time, as the costs of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal have continued increasing. It’s estimated that steel prices would soar by 32% in global market in 2011.
News Source www.yieh.com