If you've been following the markets lately, you know that energy stocks have been soaring. As shown in the first chart below, the S&P 500 Energy sector has basically had an uninterrupted trek higher since last August, gaining 50% over this time period. The sector is currently extended well into overbought territory at more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. As shown in the second chart, oil (the commodity) has also been trending higher, but its move has been nothing like the move in oil stocks. Recently oil has moved to the bottom of its trading range.
After noticing the recent divergence between oil and oil stocks, we decided to take a look at the historical relationship between the two to see how things look now compared to the past. Below is a chart showing the ratio between the S&P 500 Energy sector and oil going back to 1990. When the line is rising, oil stocks are outperforming oil, and vice versa for a declining line. While the ratio has indeed picked up recently, it is still closer to the bottom of its historical range than the top. Does this mean oil stocks can run even farther?
Crude oil price dipped on Thursday as the dollar surged against the euro and other major counterparts on positive economic data released in the United States.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 32 cents to 90.54 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
On Thursday, driven by upbeat economic data, the dollar surged 1.16 percent against the euro, and the dollar index, which is tracking the dollar performance against a basket of currencies, increased about 0.80 percent.
The Labor Department said the number of people filing for first- time unemployment benefits fell 42,000 to 415,000 in the week ended Jan. 29, and eased more than expected last week, a positive sign before the government released its closely-watched monthly jobs report on Friday.
Meanwhile, economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 14th consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The ISM said its non-manufacturing index rose to 59.4 last month from 57.1 in December, the highest level in more than five years, while economists had expected a modest drop.
Source: Xinhua
Energy Outlook 2030
Petrobras and CNOOC Expanding Early In 2011 As Global Balance of Power Shifts To The Emerging World
As the global balance of power tilts away from developed nations, major players in the energy game have been positioning themselves for 2011. It was reported on Tuesday that Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant, was in talks with Italy’s Eni to acquire its 33.3% stake in Portuguese oil company Galp. The same day, CNOOC, China’s state-backed oil and gas firm, announced it would invest $151 billion (1 trillion yuan) by 2015 to expand its offshore and overseas operations.
BP's 'base case' - or most likely projection - points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections
According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections
According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In launching the BP Energy Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: “The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide.”
“I need to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence. For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price. Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide.”
“I need to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence. For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price. Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
Highlights
BP’s ‘base case’ projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68% higher by 2030 averaging 2.6% per year growth, and accounts for 93% of global energy growth. In contrast, OECD growth averages 0.3% per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2% per year.
Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.
The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.
The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
“The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies,” said Rühl. “In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30%) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.”
“The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies,” said Rühl. “In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30%) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.”
Energy intensity
Since 1900 the world’s population has more than quadrupled, real income (as measured by Gross Domestic Product) has grown by a factor of 25, and primary energy consumption by a factor of 23. “The modern energy economy has been shaped by the trends of industrialisation, urbanisation, motorisation and rising income levels,” said Rühl.Energy per unit of income as measured by GDP continues to fall, and at an accelerating rate. “This is true in our outlook to 2030 not only for the global average, but for almost all of the key countries and regions. The combination of energy efficiency gains and a long-term structural shift towards less energy intensive activities as economies develop underpins this trend,” said Rühl.
Non-OECD growth
Global liquids demand is forecast to reach 102.4 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in 2030. The net growth of 16.5 mmbpd over the next 20 years comes exclusively from the emerging economies of the non-OECD. “Non-OECD Asia will account for nearly two-thirds of non-OECD consumption growth over the next 20 years and more than three-quarters of the net global increase, rising by nearly 13 million barrels a day,” said Rühl.“The largest increments of new supply will come from OPEC – conventional crude in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) which are not subject to OPEC quotas.”
Non-OPEC liquids are likely to rise modestly, driven by a large increase in biofuels, along with smaller increments from Canadian oil sands, deepwater Brazil, and the FSU which offset continued declines in mature provinces.
Fuel substitution
According to the Energy Outlook’s projections, oil continues to suffer a long run decline in market share, while gas steadily gains share. Coal’s recent gains in market share, on the back of rapid industrialisation in China and India in particular, are reversed by 2030, with all three fossil fuels converging on market shares around 27%. The diversifying fuel mix can be seen most clearly in terms of shares of growth. Over the period 1990-2010 fossil fuels contributed 83% of the growth in energy; over the next twenty years fossil fuels are likely to contribute 64% of the growth. Renewables (excluding hydro) and biofuels together account for 18% of the growth in energy to 2030.“The diversifying fuel mix is being driven largely by developments in the power sector. Energy used to generate power remains the fastest growing sector, accounting for 53% of the growth in primary energy consumption 1990-2010 and projected to account for 57% of the growth to 2030. In terms of end use, industry drives the growth of final energy consumption. The role of transport is weakening; over the past 20 years transport sector energy demand grew at about the same rate as total energy demand, but over the next 20 years it grows much less rapidly than total energy,” said Rühl.
“OECD oil demand declines are concentrated primarily outside the transport sector, where it is relatively easier to displace oil by gas and renewables; post-2015, OECD transport demand is also expected to fall as technology and policy drive improved engine efficiency.”
Growth in biofuels
Biofuels production is expected to reach 6.7 mmbpd by 2030 from 1.8 mmbpd in 2010 and will contribute 125% of net non-OPEC supply growth over the next 20 years. Continued policy support, high oil prices, and continued technological innovations all contribute to the rapid expansion.The US and Brazil will continue to dominate biofuel production with 76% of total output in 2010 but falling to 68% in 2030 as output from Asia-Pacific begins to rise.
“The global fuel mix continues to diversify – but for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth,” said Rühl.
Environmental policy
The Energy Outlook 2030 assumes continued policy action to address concerns about both climate change and energy security, based on the current trend of political commitment. BP has developed an alternative ‘policy case’ to explore the implications of a significant increase in the level of political commitment which translates into a tightening of policy.“The key focus of the policy case is to reduce dependence on carbon intensive fuels. This can be achieved through a wide range of policy instruments, including various ways of putting a price on carbon,” said Rühl.
In BP’s policy case “global emissions peak just after 2020, but will still be 20% above 2005 levels. The emissions path is still expected to be well above the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario1 , indicating how much more effort will be required after 2030 to put the world onto a ‘safe’ path,” said Rühl.
The cut in emissions in the policy case would be achieved through a combination of more rapid efficiency gains, fuel switching – from coal to gas and from fossil fuels to nuclear, hydro and renewables – and the introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for both coal and gas power plants.
Oil vs. Oil Stocks
If you've been following the markets lately, you know that energy stocks have been soaring. As shown in the first chart below, the S&P 500 Energy sector has basically had an uninterrupted trek higher since last August, gaining 50% over this time period. The sector is currently extended well into overbought territory at more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. As shown in the second chart, oil (the commodity) has also been trending higher, but its move has been nothing like the move in oil stocks. Recently oil has moved to the bottom of its trading range. After noticing the recent divergence between oil and oil stocks, we decided to take a look at the historical relationship between the two to see how things look now compared to the past. Below is a chart showing the ratio between the S&P 500 Energy sector and oil going back to 1990. When the line is rising, oil stocks are outperforming oil, and vice versa for a declining line. While the ratio has indeed picked up recently, it is still closer to the bottom of its historical range than the top. Does this mean oil stocks can run even farther?
Oil Stocks: Why They Say $100.00-a-Barrel Oil Is a Reality
Long-time subscribers know my fondness for stock price charts in determining future trends. I believe, most of the time, that the price of stocks are a leading indicator of what lies ahead, especially for individual stock sectors.Months before the turmoil in Egypt erupted, the price of oil started to rise. After crashing to a low of about $30.00 a barrel in the depth of the 2008 financial crisis, oil came running back to $91.00 a barrel. (While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 87% from its 2008 low, the price of oil has risen 200% since its 2008 low.)Looking at the charts right now, the Dow Jones U.S. & Gas Index literally shows a straight line upward from September 2010, when the index traded at 440, to 635 today—a gain of 44% in five months. The chart screams of higher stock prices ahead for the oil companies—which the market obviously relates to higher crude oil prices.Blame the exploding economies of China and India, a colder-than-expected 2010/2011 winter in the northeast U.S., an improving North American economy, tensions over the Suez Canal, and recovering car sales worldwide, but the stock price charts indicate that oil prices will continue to rise.Now my two contrarian spins on rising oil prices:Firstly, rising oil prices are inflationary. With inflation come rising interest rates. Secondly, crude oil is priced throughout the world predominately in U.S. dollars. As the U.S. dollar continues its long-term devaluation against other world currencies, the price of oil rises, because it takes more real U.S. dollars to purchase crude.I’ve often looked at crude as a “put” against the declining value of the U.S. dollar. The more the greenback falls in value against other world currencies, the higher oil prices move. Who knows; maybe one day world oil producers will demand payment for their crude in non-U.S. dollars. Anyone say “gold?”Michael’s Personal Notes:While I was driving downtown late yesterday afternoon, I was listening to the radio. Three CNBC journalists were interviewing the president of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM).The first asked about what happens when gold prices run up to $1,500 an ounce and come running back down. Another asked why Newmont doesn’t hedge its bets, with the price of gold so high right now. A layperson listener like me couldn’t help but notice that all three of the CNBC interviewers were negative or bearish on gold.When the president of Newmont got off the phone, one interviewer basically said to another interviewer, “What happens when the price of gold bullion comes crashing below $1,000 per ounce; how hard will Newmont stock get hit?”My two points on this: the majority of investors do not believe that the price of gold will continue to rise. Wednesday, I quoted a recent Bloomberg poll that said more than half of 1,000 investors polled thought the gold market was in a bubble. As long as this negativity towards gold bullion exists, the price of gold will continue to rise.Secondly, there was no mention during the CNCB Newmont interview of the effects of the price of gold, because the U.S. greenback is devalued against other major world currencies. This is key; the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar is a major factor in the pricing of gold bullion.After Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX), Newmont is the second-largest producer of gold in the world. The amount of $10,000 invested in Newmont stock in 2001 would be worth $38,220 today, even after the recent correction in the gold prices. Newmont has been an excellent way to play the run-up in gold prices.Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:More of the same…with all the liquidity in the financial system, with investors wary of putting their money in bonds as interest rates rise (bonds fall in value when interest rates rise), with the economy looking like it is getting healthier every passing day, and with corporate earnings rising, why won’t investors put money in stocks?In the immediate term, I expect stocks to continue rising. Short- to long-term, it is a different story. Yesterday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a high not seen since May of 2010. Interest rates are going up globally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average opens this last trading day of the week up 4.2% for 2011.
Long-time subscribers know my fondness for stock price charts in determining future trends. I believe, most of the time, that the price of stocks are a leading indicator of what lies ahead, especially for individual stock sectors.
Months before the turmoil in Egypt erupted, the price of oil started to rise. After crashing to a low of about $30.00 a barrel in the depth of the 2008 financial crisis, oil came running back to $91.00 a barrel. (While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 87% from its 2008 low, the price of oil has risen 200% since its 2008 low.)
Looking at the charts right now, the Dow Jones U.S. & Gas Index literally shows a straight line upward from September 2010, when the index traded at 440, to 635 today—a gain of 44% in five months. The chart screams of higher stock prices ahead for the oil companies—which the market obviously relates to higher crude oil prices.
Blame the exploding economies of China and India, a colder-than-expected 2010/2011 winter in the northeast U.S., an improving North American economy, tensions over the Suez Canal, and recovering car sales worldwide, but the stock price charts indicate that oil prices will continue to rise.
Now my two contrarian spins on rising oil prices:
Firstly, rising oil prices are inflationary. With inflation come rising interest rates. Secondly, crude oil is priced throughout the world predominately in U.S. dollars. As the U.S. dollar continues its long-term devaluation against other world currencies, the price of oil rises, because it takes more real U.S. dollars to purchase crude.
I’ve often looked at crude as a “put” against the declining value of the U.S. dollar. The more the greenback falls in value against other world currencies, the higher oil prices move. Who knows; maybe one day world oil producers will demand payment for their crude in non-U.S. dollars. Anyone say “gold?”
Michael’s Personal Notes:
While I was driving downtown late yesterday afternoon, I was listening to the radio. Three CNBC journalists were interviewing the president of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM).
The first asked about what happens when gold prices run up to $1,500 an ounce and come running back down. Another asked why Newmont doesn’t hedge its bets, with the price of gold so high right now. A layperson listener like me couldn’t help but notice that all three of the CNBC interviewers were negative or bearish on gold.
When the president of Newmont got off the phone, one interviewer basically said to another interviewer, “What happens when the price of gold bullion comes crashing below $1,000 per ounce; how hard will Newmont stock get hit?”
My two points on this: the majority of investors do not believe that the price of gold will continue to rise. Wednesday, I quoted a recent Bloomberg poll that said more than half of 1,000 investors polled thought the gold market was in a bubble. As long as this negativity towards gold bullion exists, the price of gold will continue to rise.
Secondly, there was no mention during the CNCB Newmont interview of the effects of the price of gold, because the U.S. greenback is devalued against other major world currencies. This is key; the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar is a major factor in the pricing of gold bullion.
After Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX), Newmont is the second-largest producer of gold in the world. The amount of $10,000 invested in Newmont stock in 2001 would be worth $38,220 today, even after the recent correction in the gold prices. Newmont has been an excellent way to play the run-up in gold prices.
Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:
More of the same…with all the liquidity in the financial system, with investors wary of putting their money in bonds as interest rates rise (bonds fall in value when interest rates rise), with the economy looking like it is getting healthier every passing day, and with corporate earnings rising, why won’t investors put money in stocks?
In the immediate term, I expect stocks to continue rising. Short- to long-term, it is a different story. Yesterday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a high not seen since May of 2010. Interest rates are going up globally.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opens this last trading day of the week up 4.2% for 2011.
Oil vs. Oil Stocks
Energy companies in emerging markets have expanded in tandem with strong economic growth in their home-countries. Brazilian oil-giant Petrobras, which has the state as one of its major shareholders, pushed its way into center stage after discovering pre-salt fields off the coast of Brazil. The company has been growing substantially and appears to be interested in acquiring a 33.3% stake in Galp, a Portuguese oil firm operating off the Brazilian coast.
Italian energy company Eni holds the coveted 33.3% stake, which it acquired in 2000 in a failed attempt to take a controlling position in Galp. Petorbras’ supposed offer, which would total approximately $4.7 billion (3.5 billion euros) would be a good deal for Eni. The Italian company’s CEO Paolo Scaroni has said on various occasions that Eni is only interested in a controlling stake in Galp, a situation made impossible by a regime change in the Portuguese government. All three parties declined to comment.
While it may seem redundant for Petrobras to invest in a company with a substantially smaller pre-salt operation in Brazil, analysts for Bloomberg explained that the deal might be a way for Petrobras to indirectly fund deep sea projects it operates via joint-ventures with Galp. Petrobras and Galp are partners in the massive pre-salt Tupi basin, estimated to hold about 6.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Another state-backed oil giant, CNOOC, announced on Tuesday it would spend about $151 billion (1 trillion yuan) through 2015 to boost its offshore and overseas production, according to Bloomberg. Fu Chengyu, CNOOC’s president, was quoted saying his company would tap capital markets and use its cash flow to invest in offshore projects and overseas production.
The Chinese company has been on an espansionary phase, acquiring a 33.3% stake in Chesapeake Energy and purchasing BP's Argentine assests for $7 billion in 2010. CNOOC is aiming to take overseas production to 50 million tons of oil equivalent by 2020. Its ambitious plans also include generating 50 million tons of oil equivalent from deepwater sources in China’s coastal areas.
CNOOC and Petrorbras are prime examples of the changing tides of these times. As emerging nations drag the world economy out of the financial crisis and subsequent recession, companies in these countries are quickly becoming major players in their sectors, pushing advanced Western nations further off the picture.
